In a world in which “there are deep anxieties about globalisation, multilateralism and free trade” in many countries, “a small, hyper-connected, hyper-globalised city-state like Singapore” has to maintain unity and strengthen cohesion, and it also must “retool, reskill, reboot” its economy, according to Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan.
The Indian-origin foreign minister spoke on Friday at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs Year Opener “Outlook 2025 – Singapore at 60 and The Road Ahead”. He looked back at the 60 years that have marked the astonishing success story of Singapore; he also looked ahead to the decades in which the world order will not be guided by Pax Americana.
Following the year-opener event, Vivian Balakrishnan posted on Facebook a video of his speech, and summarised his thoughts: “Over the last 60 years, Singapore’s success as a global city has been built on the hard work, discipline, adaptability, resilience, trustworthiness and reliability of successive generations.
“Today, however, many of the foundations that supported our success —including global stability, free trade and a liberal rules-based world order — are being eroded. The world is at an inflection point.
“At the Singapore Institute of International Affairs’ Year Opener 2025, I emphasised [upon] the need to stay open, uphold international law, and strengthen unity on the home front.”
The Singapore foreign minister said in his Facebook post: “The conduct of foreign policy and diplomacy will become more complex in a volatile and turbulent world. But we must continue to take a long view, resolutely defend our interests, make common cause with our neighbours and partners, and ensure our place at the table.”
On Friday, Vivian Balakrishnan had opened his speech by saying that 2025 not only marked “SG60” but also the 80th anniversary of World War II. In this context, he said that this was “an opportune time for us to ask three sets of fundamental questions”.
He said, “The first set [of questions] has to do with Singapore — how far have we come in 60 years? What were the factors — endogenous and exogenous — that brought us here, in this shape?
“The second set of questions I want you to think about is, what does the current state of the world, in particular the volatility, the turmoil, the news headlines… what does this portend for Singapore?
“And the third set of questions is, how should we respond? What does the future hold for us? And what would be a sensible response to this unfolding future?”
The foreign minister’s reference to the end of World War II was pertinent, because 1945 is the year when America brought the war to an end, with the surrender of Japan.
Thereafter, what began was a global order in which the United States stood out as the dominant economic and military power in the West, also influencing events in the East. This was Pax Americana — a period of “long peace” ensured by America.
That is set to change now, with the new Donald Trump Administration in the White House focusing on “America first” and refusing to get drawn into costly military conflicts in other parts of the world.
‘Global City’ Singapore: An idea born in 1972
In his speech, before moving to the subject of Pax Americana and what its end might mean for Singapore, the minister spoke of his predecessor, “Singapore’s first Foreign Minister, Mr S Rajaratnam”.
In 1972, Rajaratnam spoke of his vision and coined the term “Global City”, to mean Singapore. “He argued that because Singapore was so small, with no hinterland or natural resources, Singapore had to become a ‘world-embracing city,’” said Balakrishnan.
“Mr Rajaratnam was a wordsmith. He created a word which I had never seen before — ‘Ecumenopolis’. This concept of going and leaping beyond our immediate limitations, boundaries, and neighbourhood, was in fact ahead of its time, but one which has served us very well,” said Balakrishnan.
“In other words, Singapore embarked on hyper-connected globalisation before it became conventional wisdom, before it became the standard formula for rising cities and countries throughout Asia,” said the present foreign minister.
As a result, Singapore was fully prepared for globalisation within a few years of the nation’s independence.
We, therefore, were pre-positioned for the last six decades of globalisation. In particular, we seized the opportunities presented by Pax Americana, which has in fact been around for 80 years because America was the ultimate winner of the Second World War.
Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs
Delving into the benefits of Pax Americana, the Singapore foreign minister said that it “offered a vision of a liberal world order — liberal in three separate but related senses”.
He elaborated, “Domestically, politically, it meant freedom of choice. It meant some adherence to the concept of human rights, and in particular, it meant some form of democracy — that is the internal dimension.
“The economic dimension to the liberal world order was free trade and global supply chains. And of course, it is no accident that these were the decades when the American multinationals were expanding and building global supply chains.
“Globally, the third dimension of a liberal world order was the establishment of international norms and international law. International institutions — the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO — with a mandate to secure peace, provide conducive conditions for prosperity, and to provide global public goods to deal with what would otherwise be the tragedy of the commons. By that I mean dealing with pandemics, dealing with climate change, the Law of the Sea, protection and exploitation of intellectual property and the protection of biodiversity.”
Singapore benefits greatly from Pax Americana
This well-organised liberal world order, held together by Pax Americana, suited Singapore very well and aided its progress.
Measuring the country’s development in figures, Balakrishan said, “Singapore thrived in such a conducive world. In 1965, Singapore’s GDP was USD 1 billion. Last year, our GDP was just over USD 500 billion. On a per capita basis, our per capita GDP has grown from USD 500 in 1965 to around USD 85,000 today — a remarkable once-in-a-lifetime feat.”
He continued, “Our trade-to-GDP ratio regularly hovers around 300 per cent — a ratio which is off the scale for any other country or city, meaning that trade is the lifeblood of our economy. It’s not just an ideological point or a negotiating point. It is our lifeblood.”
The benefits of this economic progress have been equitably distributed in Singapore. Balakrishnan said that “the true success of a country is not just GDP growth, not just the economy, but also the strength of our social fabric”. He pointed out that over the past six decades, Singapore had built “a unique cohesive Singaporean identity, forged from a very diverse, multi-racial, multi-lingual, and multi-religious society”.
Recalling a past conversation with Lee Kuan Yew, the first prime minister of Singapore and the country’s founder, Balakrishnan said that the country was built by “a hardworking and disciplined” population, who had no natural resources to fall back on and had their “backs against the wall”.
Being an island nation, Singapore has certain advantages, but global events such as climate change and new trade routes could erode those economic advantages.
For instance, as Balakrishnan said, melting Arctic ice because of global warming could mean that the Strait of Malacca, so close to Singapore, might no longer be the shortest maritime route between Europe and Asia.
Common cause with neighbours and beyond
Waxing and waning of global factors mean that Singapore also has to constantly upgrade its strategies. One thing never changes — for decades, Singapore has found it imperative to remain “useful and relevant to the world”.
Balakrishnan said, “We have had to make common cause with our neighbours and beyond. We have had to consistently uphold international law, and the sanctity of contract, not just because it feels good to be honest and reliable, but because being honest and reliable gives us that competitive advantage to take full opportunities that come from a strategic location, and to give opportunities and livelihoods to our people.”
Standing here in 2025, the foreign minister said that several of the prerequisites for the past success of Singapore were now severely eroded. “The world is now at an inflection point,” he added.
The liberal world order, the global supply chains, the growth of multinationals, peace in the region, and a stable global balance of power — all were in question now.
The presence of America in the Singapore neighbourhood had “encouraged both growth and trade, and investment”; and in the Seventies, the national reforms in China had given the Singapore economy yet another market to access.
But so much has happened since then, and it all affects Singapore. The foreign minister said that “the argument that is being made is that the big news today is not actually Russia and China, but the United States that is now challenging the very system that it envisioned, underwrote and protected”.
Touching upon the “geostrategic earthquakes” and the “simultaneous, interlocking, mutually synergistic technological revolutions in digital technologies”, Balakrishnan said they came with “both huge opportunities and significant dangers”. Singapore needed to pay attention, in order “to protect the global commons and at the same time to have an equitable distribution of opportunities”, he said.
Omni-directional and constructive engagement
Balakrishnan then asked, “Given the state of the world, given the ongoing dislocations and disruptions, how should we in Singapore respond? What is a small, hyper-connected, hyper-globalised city-state like Singapore to do in a world that is more suspicious of globalisation and its benefits, and deal with the technological revolution, and deal also with maintaining and forging cohesion, consensus without erasing diversity, but making sure there’s enough centre of gravity in the middle? These are profound challenges.”
Singapore had no choice but to remain “open and inclusive” said the foreign minister. “As far as foreign policy and alignment are concerned, we need to maintain an omni-directional, balanced, and productive and constructive engagement with all powers — big and middle,” he said.
Referring to an earlier speech by Lee Hsien Loong, former Singapore Prime Minister (and present Senior Minister), the foreign minister said that the island nation’s foreign policy was “actually a balance between realism and idealism”.
“Realism, because we know we have to take the world as it is and not as we hope it will be; but idealism, because we resolutely refuse to surrender to our fates as a small state,” said Balakrishnan. “We insist that we still have agency, and we will defend ourselves and advance our interests… But translating this, defending ourselves and advancing our interests — that is the real challenge.”
Close to the end of his address, the Singapore foreign minister alluded to a speech by former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. She had said that diplomacy was “not a quiet game of chess”, but rather it was like “the game of billiards” — the moment a player’s cue ball hits more than one ball, there is “a chain of unintended and unanticipated consequences”.
In this volatile world, where many players are hitting their diplomatic cue balls, “we are guaranteed to see more uncertainty and more unpredictability”.
So, what could Singapore do? “Those of us who participate in this Great Game of Diplomacy must endeavour to keep everyone at the table, take a long term view, to work collaboratively to uphold the rules, and to insist on fair and equitable treatment,” said Balakrishnan.
He said, “Singapore will stand on our own two feet. We will defend what is ours. We will take a long-term enlightened view. We will make common cause with partners and supporters, and potential (and hopefully an expanding pool of) partners. If we fail to do this, the alternative is a more chaotic, unsafe world on a global stage, and a divided and polarised domestic body politic. We have witnessed this in other parts of the world. We know what to avoid. So this is an exciting time to be alive.”
